A Statistical Sediment Yield Prediction Model Incorporating the Effect of Fires and Subsequent Storm Events
Identifieur interne : 000A42 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000A41; suivant : 000A43A Statistical Sediment Yield Prediction Model Incorporating the Effect of Fires and Subsequent Storm Events
Auteurs : Jang Hyuk Pak [États-Unis] ; Jiin-Jen Lee [États-Unis]Source :
- JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association [ 1093-474X ] ; 2008-06.
English descriptors
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Abstract
Abstract: Alluvial fans are continuously being developed for residential, industrial, commercial, and agricultural uses in southern California. Development and alteration of alluvial fans need to consider the possibility of mud and debris flows from upstream mountain watersheds affected by fires. Accurate prediction of sediment yield (or hyper‐concentrated sediment yield) is essential for the design, operation, and maintenance of debris basins to safeguard properly the general populace. This paper presents a model for the prediction of sediment yields that result from a combination of fire and subsequent storm events. The watersheds used in this analysis are located in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains in southern California. A multiple regression analysis is first utilized to establish a fundamental statistical relationship for sediment yield as a function of relief ratio, drainage area, maximum 1‐h rainfall intensity and fire factor using 45 years of data (1938‐1983). In addition, a method for multi‐sequence sediment yield prediction under fire conditions was developed and calibrated using 17 years of sediment yield, fire, and precipitation data for the period 1984‐2000. After calibration, this model was verified by applying it to provide a prediction of the sediment yields for the 2001‐2002 fire events in southern California. The findings indicate a strong correlation between the estimated and measured sediment yields. The proposed method for sequence sediment yield prediction following fire events can be a useful tool to schedule cleanout operations for debris basins and to develop an emergency response strategy for the southern California region where plentiful sediment supplies exist and frequent fires occur.
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DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00199.x
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Development and alteration of alluvial fans need to consider the possibility of mud and debris flows from upstream mountain watersheds affected by fires. Accurate prediction of sediment yield (or hyper‐concentrated sediment yield) is essential for the design, operation, and maintenance of debris basins to safeguard properly the general populace. This paper presents a model for the prediction of sediment yields that result from a combination of fire and subsequent storm events. The watersheds used in this analysis are located in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains in southern California. A multiple regression analysis is first utilized to establish a fundamental statistical relationship for sediment yield as a function of relief ratio, drainage area, maximum 1‐h rainfall intensity and fire factor using 45 years of data (1938‐1983). In addition, a method for multi‐sequence sediment yield prediction under fire conditions was developed and calibrated using 17 years of sediment yield, fire, and precipitation data for the period 1984‐2000. After calibration, this model was verified by applying it to provide a prediction of the sediment yields for the 2001‐2002 fire events in southern California. The findings indicate a strong correlation between the estimated and measured sediment yields. The proposed method for sequence sediment yield prediction following fire events can be a useful tool to schedule cleanout operations for debris basins and to develop an emergency response strategy for the southern California region where plentiful sediment supplies exist and frequent fires occur.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Californie</li></region></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Californie"><name sortKey="Pak, Jang Hyuk" sort="Pak, Jang Hyuk" uniqKey="Pak J" first="Jang Hyuk" last="Pak">Jang Hyuk Pak</name></region><name sortKey="Lee, Jiin En" sort="Lee, Jiin En" uniqKey="Lee J" first="Jiin-Jen" last="Lee">Jiin-Jen Lee</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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